From predictive policing to prescriptive policing

In short

Police forces around the world, including in the Netherlands, were experimenting with predictive policing in 2016: policing based on crime predictions.

Big data on past crimes and machine learning are used to predict when and where the next offence will take place.

When the effectiveness of police actions is also stored, the system can predict which intervention works best; this is called prescriptive policing.

The authors discuss how these methods work, how reliable and effective they are, and which risks they bring.

They stress that legal, ethical and organisational safeguards are needed for responsible use.

About the publication

Journal

Justitiële verkenningen (Judicial explorations)

Publisher

Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) of the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice, with Boom juridisch

Frequency

Six issues a year

Issue

No. 3, 2016

Theme

New technologies in law enforcement and public security

Language of full text

Dutch

Summary added in 2026 to make this archive easier to use. The original article follows unchanged.

Law enforcement around the world, including the Netherlands, is currently experimenting with predictive policing: policing based on crime predictions. Big Data on past crimes and the help of sophisticated machine learning enable police to use reliable predictions about when and where the next offense will take place. If the effectiveness of policing actions is stored in the system, it can also predict which intervention is most effective. This is called prescriptive policing. The authors explain how these methods work, how reliable and effective they are and which associated risks can be identified. The authors emphasize that legal, ethical and organizational safeguards are necessary for a responsible implementation.

Source: WODC

About

Justitiële verkenningen (Judicial explorations) is published six times a year by the Research and Documentation Centre of the Dutch Ministryof Security and Justice in cooperation with Boom juridisch. Each issue focuses on a central theme related to judicial policy. The section Summaries contains abstracts of the internationally most relevant articles of each issue. The central theme of this issue (no. 3, 2016) is New technologies in law enforcement and public security.

Full article and booklet are in Dutch only:

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Questions about this article

What is the difference between predictive and prescriptive policing?

Predictive policing uses data on past crimes and machine learning to predict when and where the next offence will happen. Prescriptive policing goes a step further: by also storing how effective police actions were, the system predicts which intervention is most effective.

What safeguards do the authors call for?

They emphasise that legal, ethical and organisational safeguards are necessary for a responsible implementation of these methods.

Where was this article published?

In issue 3 of 2016 of Justitiële verkenningen, published by the Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) of the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice with Boom juridisch. The full article is in Dutch only.

Questions and answers added in 2026, based on the article above.